BIA Advisory Services has revised its U.S. Local Advertising Forecast for 2026, now projecting total revenue will reach $184.5 billion.
The updated projection, a notable increase from the previous estimate, signals stronger-than-expected economic activity and a shifting media landscape. This upward revision highlights significant growth in digital advertising channels and a surge in anticipated political spending, creating new opportunities and competitive pressures for local businesses across the country. The forecast provides a critical benchmark for companies planning their marketing strategies and budgets for the coming years, reflecting a marketplace that is not shrinking but actively transforming.
What We Know So Far
- BIA Advisory Services has officially revised its 2026 U.S. Local Advertising Forecast upward, according to multiple reports.
- Total local ad revenue is now projected to reach $184.5 billion in 2026, an increase from the firm's prior analysis.
- The new forecast represents a significant jump from the previous estimate of $181.7 billion for the same year.
- The projection includes an estimated $8.4 billion in local political advertising spending, a key factor in the overall increase.
- Excluding political ad buys, the forecast for core local advertising stands at $176.1 billion, up from a previous $172.7 billion.
- The total forecast represents approximately 8.1% year-over-year growth compared to 2025 projections, as reported by Insideradio.com.
Local Advertising Market Forecast: $185 Billion by 2026
The revised forecast from BIA Advisory Services paints a picture of a robust local advertising market poised for substantial growth. The new projection of $184.5 billion for 2026 is a $2.8 billion increase over the firm's previous estimate of $181.7 billion, which was released in late 2025. This adjustment reflects a more optimistic outlook based on recent performance data and evolving market dynamics, particularly in digital sectors.
A significant portion of this growth is attributed to the cyclical nature of political advertising. With 2026 being a midterm election year, BIA projects that a formidable $8.4 billion will be spent on local political ads. This influx of cash is expected to heavily influence media markets across the country. Even when this political spending is removed from the equation, the core advertising market shows healthy growth. The forecast for non-political, or core, local advertising has been raised to $176.1 billion, up from the earlier projection of $172.7 billion. This underlying strength suggests that businesses are increasing their marketing investments to capture consumer attention in a competitive environment.
The overall 8.1% year-over-year growth from 2025 underscores the market's momentum. "Our updated forecast reflects continued momentum in social and connected and over the top television, which are capturing a growing share of local advertising budgets," said Senan Mele, VP of forecasting and data analysis at BIA Advisory Services, in a statement published by TVNewsCheck. This shift indicates that the channels through which businesses reach local customers are evolving rapidly, with digital platforms playing an increasingly central role.
Key Drivers Behind the Local Ad Spending Surge
The decision to raise the 2026 forecast was not based on a single factor but on a confluence of trends showing stronger-than-expected performance across several key areas. According to BIA's analysis, the primary drivers include accelerated growth in mobile advertising, particularly through social media platforms, as well as significant gains in digital video and streaming services like Connected TV (CTV) and Over-the-Top (OTT) platforms. Advances in advertising technology, which allow for more precise targeting and measurement, have also contributed to the increased spending.
Political advertising remains a powerful catalyst. The projected $8.4 billion in spending for the 2026 midterm elections is expected to create substantial revenue opportunities across a wide range of media. This includes traditional outlets like broadcast television, linear cable, and radio, as well as digital channels and direct mail. This intense political spending often leads to tighter ad inventory and higher prices, a factor local businesses must consider in their planning.
Beyond political cycles, the forecast identifies several key business verticals that are expected to drive advertising growth. According to a report from RadioInsight, sectors such as real estate, restaurants, travel, retail, and financial services are poised for expansion. This suggests a broad-based economic confidence among consumer-facing industries. Rick Ducey, managing director at BIA, noted that "the local advertising marketplace continues to reflect a K-shaped consumer economy," implying that while some sectors thrive, others may face challenges, making targeted advertising all the more crucial for success.
Even traditional media formats are expected to see movement. Over-the-air (OTA) radio revenue, for example, is projected to increase by 1.8% to approximately $10.08 billion in 2026, as reported by News.Radio-Online.com. This indicates that while digital is growing faster, established media still command a significant share of local ad budgets.
What Happens Next
The revised forecast from BIA reveals a clear and accelerating shift toward digital platforms, fundamentally transforming the market rather than simply expanding it. This necessitates adaptation from local businesses and media companies. Those not yet invested in mobile, social, and streaming video advertising risk a significant competitive disadvantage.
"Overall, the local advertising market is not contracting; it is transforming," BIA's analysis concluded. "The most successful media companies will be those that can combine local audience scale with targeting, optimization, and measurement to capture both cyclical political spending and ongoing demand from growth-oriented verticals." This advice extends to the advertisers themselves, who must become more sophisticated in how they allocate their marketing dollars to reach specific customer segments effectively.
Businesses must prepare for a more crowded and expensive advertising landscape in 2026, particularly in markets with competitive political races. Planning marketing campaigns and securing ad placements well in advance will be critical for success. Moreover, companies should continuously monitor market trends and be prepared to adjust their strategies. Staying informed through updated data from BIA and other firms is essential for navigating the dynamic local advertising environment and achieving sustained growth.
